MyDD :: Obama up by 31 in New York

Obama up by 31 in New York

by Lance Bryce, Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:35:55 PM EST

Ouch. Even with millions of PUMAs draining the vote away from him in the PUMA heartland of New York, Obama is winning by 31%.

From Rasmussen.

New York:
Obama: 60
McCain: 29

Thank you Hillary Clinton. Obama owes this lead to you and your (frankly) heroic efforts to put the past behind you and move forward.

This must really sting all 12 of the members of PUMA. It turns out that an organization that consists of 12 racists (and about 130 cats) don't really amount to much. The KKK probably will have more influence over this year's elections than PUMA.

For historical reference:

Gore won New York by 25. Since he won the national popular vote by .5%, that state was D+25.5 in 2000.

Kerry won New York by 18. Since he lost the national popular vote by 3%, that means that New York was a D+21 state that year.

Obama is ahead nationally by an average of 5.9% according to RCP. This 31 point lead would mean that New York is a D+25.1 state this year.

Tags: HA! (all tags)

Permalink :: 21 Comments :: Post a Comment

Tips for my cat (2.00 / 3)

I only have one, for the record.

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:37:22 PM EST

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

Oh dear lord, will we win New York by too much enough?!?!

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:37:29 PM EST

The chances of McCain (none / 0)

winning the popular vote appear to be under 20% with the margins that Obama will run up on him in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, California, and previously swing states such as Minnesota and Wiscosnin. Is there any state, red or blue, that Obama will perform poorer than Kerry, excluding Massachusetts?

The problem is the popular vote is meaningless with respect to who becomes president. My stomach tells me there is a 40% chance that on the early morning of November 3rd, we'll be at 264 electoral votes after fallen just short by 2% in Colorado and Virginia and down 40,000 votes in Ohio while waiting for Cleveland and Akron to save us.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:41:20 PM EST

the silver lining in McCain getting (none / 0)

the electoral college but losing the popular vote is that the momentum to end the electoral college will gain great strength, that not only did Bush get in that way, but so did another REPUBLICAN. Also, if you remember, the electoral college was created so slave owners would have their slaves non-votes counted in form of electoral votes based off a slave being 3/5s of a person. we can say "not only was the electoral college created for racist reasons," but that its rigged against blacks like Obama because he would have won a plurality or majority of votes but didn't do it in certain states, likely ones that would have been averse to voting for a black person.

by Lakrosse on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't think (none / 0)

McCain would give a shit; he'd be president.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ending the EC (none / 0)

is, sadly, just a pipe dream. You could never get 2/3 of state legislatures b/c the EC benefits small states. You could also never get enough GOPs in the house and senate.

by JJE on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 07:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

oops (none / 0)

I meant 3/4 of state legislatures.

by JJE on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 07:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

get an initiative on the ballot (none / 0)

have some state reps introduce it, have them vote, and it probably will win. Its worth a shot.

by Lakrosse on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 07:03:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The chances of McCain (none / 0)

I'm thinking he'll underperform Kerry in Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas, Arizona, and Oklahoma.

If you're really looking at apples to apples (Obama's popular vote minus state performance vs Kerry's popular vote minus state performance), then I think Kerry will outperform Obama in teh following additional states:

Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Louisiana, and Rhode Island.

In other words, since Kerry lost Florida by 5% and the national vote by 3%, that means Florida is R+2.

Right now, Obama is winning the national vote by 6% and losing Florida by an average of 2%. That makes Florida R+8 under Obama.

by Lance Bryce on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

No, Obama will LOSE NY.

A nice old lady named Harriet told me.

At least, she was nice, till she saw my Obama pin?

Then, some sort of obscenity laced rant about Hillary and her 12 cats, or something like that?

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:41:20 PM EST

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

we need to win the popular vote, and this is a good sign it could happen. If 9/11 hadn't happened, Bush woulda been politically impotent and kicked out in 2004. Kerry woulda been politically challenged if he had won Ohio but still lost the national vote, and only 100k votes woulda done it. Obama needs to blow McCain out on the coasts and best Kerry in the midwest and he'll be good popular vote wise. Given that Bob Barr, who while currently only is known by conservatives now, will eventually be introduced to the moderate and even liberal population sick of the 2 party system, winning an absolute majority may be slightly harder, but if he gets it, he's even better off.

by Lakrosse on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:42:56 PM EST

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (2.00 / 1)

"Given that Bob Barr, who while currently only is known by conservatives now, will eventually be introduced to the moderate and even liberal population sick of the 2 party system,"

Bob Barr? You're kidding, right?

He won't even get the number of votes that Ron Paul was?

And, sure, he may play in Georgia? And there, he can only help the democrats?

Oh, and most liberals over 40 don't have to be introduced to Bob?

He was the lead screamer in the Congress bleeting "What about the Children" and "Save the Republic" while impeaching Bill Clinton over a blow job.

For all his so called consitutional integrity, he shat all over it, running that witch hunt.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:50:17 PM EST

no I'm not fucking kidding (none / 0)

being that so many young people, who were sick of the war, the patriot act, and the war on drugs went to Ron Paul, many of those voters could go for Bob Barr, who otherwise would have stayed home, or voted for Obama, because he is change from what they voted against, which was McCain. Moderate change voters might not know about Barr and the impeachment, or even care and go for him. Barr's third party bid could catch fire enough to get a good amount of the vote. While Obama will win New York, maybe Barr gets 5-6 percent, and does that in other states. Also, if you were gonna respond, you could have replied directly to my post.

by Lakrosse on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 07:07:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: no I'm not fucking kidding (none / 0)

"While Obama will win New York, maybe Barr gets 5-6 percent, and does that in other states. "

Bob Barr gets 5% in what states?

That's pretty steep, but we shall see on Election day?

I'm thinking 3% in GA, less then 1% in almost every other state.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 08:10:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

Why is this important? Democrats were gonna win NYC, the same way Hillary would have won Illinois.

by Jaz on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 05:02:54 PM EST

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

I'm worried about CO and VA once the Repugs run the attack ads later on. His holds on those places are pernicious. Which makes everything depend on OH again.

by Makey on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 05:06:35 PM EST

Yup (none / 0)

Obama's viable back-up plan without Ohio is adding Colorado or Virginia. I'm becoming really nervous about Colorado now that the wingnuts are on board with McCain but still optimistic about Virginia. We've still got Warner and even if Obama fails to pick up any steam, Warner may just such a stud that he can carry Obama across the finish line in that state.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 05:10:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

You mean "tenuous," not "pernicious."

by InigoMontoya on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 06:00:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

No, he meant promiscuous.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 06:23:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama up by 31 in New York (none / 0)

Nah, he meant Obsequious.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 06:37:34 PM EST

Up by 31 in MO? That's news! (none / 0)